Diesel costs continue to fluctuate

Global fuel markets

After briefly easing in June, renewed military hostilities with Iran, disruptions to Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic, and tanker incidents have restored a geopolitical risk premium to oil and gas products.

Europe remains among the most exposed given its reliance on seaborne imports of diesel, while Asia faces the greatest supply-security risk as refiners, governments, and major importers work through reduced inventories and alternative sourcing strategies.

North America is better insulated by domestic diesel production and refining capacity, but diesel prices remain highly sensitive to global balances and recent increases are already flowing into trucking costs and fuel surcharge programs. The key story has shifted from outright shortage fears to concerns about managing geographic availability, inventories, and transportation risk.

For freight markets, this means diesel volatility is once again a strategic planning issue. Pressure on carrier profit margins and transportation surcharges are likely to persist even if physical supply disruptions are intermittent. As shippers prepare their initial 2027 transportation budgets, it is becoming increasingly prudent to plan for elevated fuel prices next year.

Diesel price trends

The U.S. average diesel price per gallon of $4.96 in July was down from $5.02 in June. Although it was a decrease month over month, the average was still considerably higher than the July 2025 price per gallon of $3.78. July also represented significant volatility, with prices increasing $0.74 throughout the month.

U.S. average diesel price per gallon

The Mexico average diesel price per liter was stable in the final weeks of July, despite volatile increases throughout the rest of North America.

Mexico average diesel price per liter

After declining in June, the national average diesel price in Canada, shown here in Canadian cents per liter, spiked similarly to U.S. diesel prices in July.

Canada average diesel price per liter

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