New dynamics in freight and labour markets

U.S.-Mexico

Trade trends

Mexico closed 2025 with record export volumes, up 7.6% for the full year and surging 17.2% in December. That momentum has carried into 2026. January exports rose 8.1% year over year (y/y), marking the strongest start of the year since 2018. Growth is increasingly concentrated in electronics and advanced manufacturing, while automotive freight tied to finished-vehicle exports continues to weaken—a shift that highlights Mexico’s transition toward deeper automotive component integration and diversified export mix.

Trade policy developments have further strengthened Mexico’s competitive position. Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s invalidation of some U.S. tariffs and the move to a temporary 10% baseline rate, Mexico maintains an advantage under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). With roughly 85% of exports qualifying for preferential treatment, the economy secretary noted that the effective tariff rate on goods from Mexico has fallen from about 4.1% to near 2%, improving its standing relative to China, Japan and Germany.

Despite export strength, Mexico’s domestic trucking sector remains under financial strain. CANACAR (Mexico’s national chamber of freight transportation) reported a historic 25% revenue decline in 2025. Carriers have had less freight to move because of stalled investment in manufacturing equipment and an 8.7% drop in capital goods imports. At the same time, the Mexican Alliance of Transport Organisations (AMOTAC) indicates carrier operating costs are rising 8-12%. A stronger peso has further pressured margins. Trucking rates have remained largely stable, leaving limited room for margin recovery in the near term.

Cross-border truckload demand

Northbound truckload demand reflects a market undergoing a compositional shift. Non-automotive manufacturing—including computers, electronics, machinery and industrial equipment—grew 17.8% in January and now represents nearly one-third of total exports.

Special-purpose industrial machinery exports surged 65.8% y/y, supporting steady freight flows through central and northern Mexico’s technology manufacturing corridors. At the same time, the share of exports moving under USMCA nearly doubled in 2025, signalling reduced exposure to tariff volatility, a dynamic that is disproportionately benefiting electronics-focused lanes.

The automotive sector is trending in the opposite direction. Automotive exports declined 9% in January, extending a contraction of 4.2% for 2025. Heavy-vehicle exports fell 53.8% y/y in January to the lowest monthly level since the pandemic, following U.S. tariffs on Mexican-made trucks. Light-vehicle production slipped 2.7%, with Japanese manufacturers leading the pullback and auto-parts exports ended 2025 at their lowest monthly level of the year. These conditions are weighing directly on carriers’ trailer utilisation across freight corridors in northern Mexico.

Upstream indicators remain supportive, but uneven. The Confederation of Industrial Chambers of Mexico (CONCAMIN) has characterised investment in Mexico as paused rather than cancelled, noting that while long-term appetite remains intact, regulatory and trade policy uncertainty is delaying capital deployment decisions. Imports of intermediate inputs, which feed Mexico’s export manufacturing base, increased 16.5% in January, suggesting continued momentum in production pipelines. However, exports continue to outpace imports, furthering the imbalance between northbound and southbound freight.

Capacity conditions at key border crossings are mixed. Laredo, which handles roughly 46% of the value of truck-transported bilateral trade, is experiencing tighter availability due to seasonal weather impacts, heightened enforcement of B1 visa rules and broader network imbalances. These dynamics are contributing to localised rate pressure and longer lead-time requirements.

Situation in Jalisco and impact on supply chains

Security developments have added another layer of complexity. The federal operation on 22 February, 2026, in Jalisco triggered retaliatory disruptions across the states of Jalisco, Colima, Guanajuato, Veracruz and Tamaulipas. The Port of Manzanillo temporarily closed, cargo flights at Guadalajara’s airport were cancelled and customs operations in both Guadalajara and Manzanillo were halted.

Although most road blockades in Jalisco were cleared within 24 hours, the episode highlights an emerging security variable for western Mexico lanes. Anticipate selective capacity premiums, greater routeing scrutiny through Jalisco and Bajío corridors and the need for added lead time on time-sensitive northbound freight. All of this reinforces the importance of diversified routeing strategies, vetted carrier relationships and real-time delivery visibility.

U.S.-Canada

Driver shortages during Canada’s winter months already place meaningful pressure on freight movement and pricing. This year, that strain could intensify amid uncertainty surrounding the future of the Temporary Foreign Worker Programme (TFWP), a key labour source for the trucking industry. As immigration policies tighten, some carriers are proactively adjusting operations, anticipating that drivers working under temporary permits may be unable to renew and return.

Compounding the issue, truck drivers remain excluded from 2026 Express Entry permanent residency, further narrowing the long-term labour pipeline. Any reduction in access to the TFWP would likely exacerbate existing driver shortages and constrain freight capacity across Canada. The broader political debate around the programme introduces an additional layer of uncertainty for carriers working to maintain a stable and reliable workforce.

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